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TROP STORM TAKES AIM AT GULF - HERE COMES GORDON!

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued tropical storm warnings for South Florida, from Golden Beach on the southeast coast to Bonita Beach on the southwest coast as well as the Keys from Craig Key to Ocean Reef. Tropical storm warnings are also posted from the Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

A tropical storm warning is typically issued when tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) are expected in 36 hours or less.

 

 
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Watches and Warnings
(A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning means those conditions are expected within 36 hours.)

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Current Status and Forecast

Gordon is currently centered near Key Largo, Florida, and is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms in southern Florida.

 

 
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Current Storm Status
(The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the brightest red colors. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone.)

Localized flooding is possible and the National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for South Florida into Monday night.

In addition, tropical-storm-force winds (39 mph or greater) are possible in the tropical storm warning area in southern Florida on Monday. A wind gust to 51 mph was reported at Miami's Opa-Locka airport on Monday morning.

An isolated tornado threat cannot be ruled out in southern Florida, as well.

 

 
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Current Radar, Watches and Warnings
(Watches and warnings are issued by the National Weather Service.)

Conditions should begin to improve Monday night in South Florida.

Steered by high pressure aloft parked over the eastern United States, Gordon will move through the eastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night through Tuesday.

Gordon is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when it makes landfall on the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday night, most likely in southeast Louisiana or southern Mississippi.

 

 
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Projected Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the forecast path of the center of Gordon. Note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding) from Gordon may spread beyond its forecast path.)

Regardless of how well organized Gordon becomes, there will still be impacts on the northern Gulf Coast.

Northern Gulf Coast Impacts

Here's a look at the current forecast impacts for Gordon but keep in mind changes are possible based on future adjustments to track and intensity.

Rainfall

Parts of the northern Gulf Coast could see 3 to 6 inches rainfall Tuesday-Wednesday, from southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama. Localized totals of 6 inches or more are possible in some areas.

As a result, there could be flooding in this region, including the New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama, metro areas. A flash flood watch has been posted by the National Weather Service for parts of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

Separate flash flood watches are in effect in southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana due to heavy rain from another weather system affecting that region on Monday.

 

 
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Rainfall Outlook
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for over a period of a few hours.)

Storm Surge, Rip Currents and High Surf

A storm surge watch has been issued from the Mississippi-Alabama border westward to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

 

 
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Storm Surge Watches and Warnings

The NHC said water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

  • Destin, Florida, to the Mississippi-Alabama border: 1 to 2 feet
  • Mississippi-Alabama border to the mouth of Mississippi River: 2 to 4 feet
  • Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border: 1 to 2 feet

High tide this week on the Louisiana and Mississippi coastline is in the early morning hours. Tuesday morning through Thursday evening is the timing for potential coastal flooding in the storm surge watch area, according to the National Weather Service

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves, according to the NHC.

An onshore wind flow will continue a risk of dangerous rip currents on the northern Gulf Coast into midweek, and swimmers are encouraged to stay out of the water.

Seas are expected to build to 6 to 10 feet by Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service in Mobile, Alabama.

Wind

Tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) are possible in the tropical storm warning area in South Florida on Monday.

By late Tuesday, tropical-storm-force winds could arrive on the northern Gulf Coast.

Some downed trees and scattered power outages in the above-mentioned areas.

 

 
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Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
(The contours above show the chance of tropical storm-force winds (at least 39 mph), according to the latest forecast by the National Hurricane Center.)

Check back with weather.com for the latest as we track Gordon in the Gulf of Mexico this week.

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Just now, BLOW_ME_UP_TOM said:

The panhandle had tstorms last week that were heavier than what would be experienced in the eye of "Gordon". This is nothing. It will be nothing at least.

@Gina DeLee @BANDIT Get a room.

It's a little early to tell, but I generally agree. I've seen them tilt and wobble. This could come more up the gut, but it just isn't very strong. Having said that that water is warm as fuck.

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2 minutes ago, BLOW_ME_UP_TOM said:

The panhandle had tstorms last week that were heavier than what would be experienced in the eye of "Gordon". This is nothing. It will be nothing at least.

@Gina DeLee @BANDIT Get a room.

Bite my tit. lol. :io:

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